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Implied Probability in Sports Betting

Description:

Implied probability is a conversion of betting odds into a percentage.

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It takes into account the bookmaker margin to express the expected probability of an outcome occurring. Knowing how to convert betting odds into implied probabilities is fundamental for betting as it helps you assess the potential value on a particular market.

Once converted, if the implied probability is less than your assessment, then it represents betting value. The most common odds formats are decimal, American and fractional. The formulas below explain how to convert odds to implied probabilities. Understanding betting odds comparison. Using an odds calculator based on probability, bookmakers odds can be used to determine the potential winning of a sports bet.

It is by multiplying these odds by the amount you intend to commit that you can estimate the potential gains of your betting coupon odds x bet winning. For example, if you want to bet on 32 odds, you can earn in winnings. The higher the odds, the greater your potential for winnings, which is why it is imperative to always compare bookmakers' odds before betting. Odds comparison will help you also to discover th. Betting odds represent the probability of an event to happen and therefore enable you to work out how much money you will win if your bet wins.

As an example, with odds of 41, for every 1 you bet, you will win 4. There is a 20 chance of this happening, calculated by 1 4 + 1 Next steps. Hopefully, that clears up betting odds. You should now have the knowledge to read betting odds, understand how likely it is to happen, and how much you stand to win. Understanding betting odds can help you get a clearer picture of not only what the value of your stake is really worth, but also what they represent in terms of the sporting event that you are betting on.

What really are the odds being shown all about? Let’s use an example of a football match between Barcelona and Real Madrid where there are three outcomes, a win for the home team, a draw or a win for the away team.

Note The easy way to convert decimal odds to probability is just a simple formula of divided by the decimal odds quote. For this example lets use divided by decimal odds 40 probability. All sports betting comes down to chance. Add the two percentages together +. For completeness, the extra is the vig’.

To calculate the probability of winning relative to the betting odds Probability of Winning Implied ProbabilityTotal. Loading Let’s run through an example by reading ice hockey odds[1] The first step is to calculate the implied probability for each team Implied Probability RiskReturn. This calculation shows the Blackhawks have an implied probability of On the other hand, the. A fair bet would be odds of 2 which represent 50 probability for each selection, totaling probabilities.

The sum of the probability for all possible outcomes in an event must be. For example in an NBA game no draw if one team has a 60 chance of winning then the other team must have a 40 chance of winning. Lower odds represent a higher probability.

If we add up the probabilities of these odds they will equal more than. A low margin sportsbook like Nitrogen review sets their s at odds of This represents probability for a sum of. A high margin sportsbook might offer, which represents probability, for a sum of. In the sports betting world odds are of critical importance for both bookmakers and punters.

After all they indicate the payout rate of your winning bets and show the anticipated outcome probability for every event. It’s not an exact science, but once you start understanding the concept of odds, you are more likely to claim bigger winnings. The purpose of this topic is to make you familiar with betting odds at all levels.

Here we will explain you the meaning of Vigorish and some other betting related terms, guide you through all popular odds formats Decimal, Fractional, American, etc.

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Betting odds represent both the probability of an outcome occurring, as well as the potential return you could receive on a winning wager. They are an indication of how likely the bookmaker thinks your prediction is. They can be presented in three different ways, including fractional, decimal and American odds. These odds make the gambling world go around and mean everything in the world of sports betting signifying both what the probability of the prediction occurring according to a bookmaker and the amount of return you would receive for a successful bet.

For instance, in a game between Manc. Divide each odd into to find its implied probability.

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This means that the implied probability of Bayern winning stands at 50 50, with the Draw and a Real Madrid win having 25 probability each. Remember how we mentioned the "fairest possible odds set" right above?

This is because there's no way you'll find such odds, unless your wagering on a betting exchange. A typical odds set would look like 1 X 2. A sum of Bet odds probability offers for a commission. This is significantly lower compared to Beteast, meaning that even if we didn't have access to the odds to begin with, the vig alone would mark a clear path into picking Bet How to convert moneyline to probability. Probability is a measurement for the certainty or uncertainty of an event taking place.

It determines for example how certain it is that Dortmund will defeat Bayern. To check whether you found a Value Bet, you have to multiply the KickForm probability in percent by the bookmaker's odd and then divide the result by KickForm probability in percent x bookmaker's odd KickForm Value Bet. If the result is above 1, it is a Value Bet. The following applies The higher above 1, the more value the bet has.

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You can use odds to calculate the implied probability of a certain outcome in a sporting event. Understanding how to read odds is a crucial step to becoming a successful sports bettor. From determining how much money you want to wager to figuring out which bets offer the most value, it all starts with a solid understanding of the odds. What Are American, Decimal, Fractional Odds?

They signal the implied probability of the outcome they are attached to.

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They indicate how much money you could win betting on that outcome. Be careful relying on the odds alone when evaluating the probability an event will occur. Odds are influenced by more than the factors actually relevant to the outcome of the event. Odds, Probability Implied Probability.

Odds are an important aspect of sports betting. Understanding them and how to use them is crucial if you want to become a successful sports bettor. Odds are used to calculate how much money you get back from winning wagers, but that’s not all. What you may not have known is that there are several different ways of expressing odds, or that odds are closely linked to the probability of a wager winning. Positive moneyline odds show how much profit a winning bet of would make.

So if you saw odds of + you would know that a wager could win you In addition to that, you’d also get your stake back, for a total return of. No matter which type of odds you use, they are just the way that the bookies’ provide the punter with different probabilities of outcomes happening within an event, be it a horse race, football match, baseball game or curling.

It makes sense that if something is more likely to happen, the probability, and therefore the odds, will be smaller than something that is very unlikely to happen. To fully understand what the odds are saying, it is sensible to determine the probability set by the bookies’.

To do this, use the simple calculation of 1 divided by the decimal odd. In horse racing, betting odds dictate probability and are perhaps the most important piece of sports betting. Displayed in both fractional and decimal format, once you have a firm understanding of how the odds represent probability, you’ll be well on your way!

How do I work out fractional betting odds? In the UK, fractional odds are the norm and you’ll rarely see horse racing odds displayed in a different format. A bet of 50 at would see a return of If you are using decimal odds, you need to subtract 1 to work out what it equates to in fractional odds.

So if you see odds of, take 1 away from the 3 2, so the odds are If it’s, again subtract 1, so the fractional odds are 1 or as we know it, 72. How do I work out probability from betting odds.

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Remember, odds change as the bets come in, which means probability estimations vary with time. Moreover, the odds displayed by different bookmakers can vary significantly, meaning that the odds displayed by a bookmaker are not always correct. It is not only important to back winners, but one must do so when the odds accurately reflect the chance of winning.

It is relatively easy to predict that Man City will win against Crystal Palace, but would you be willing to risk to make a profit of? The key is to consider a betting opportunity valuable when the probabili. Decimal odds are the most widely used format.

Their alternate name is European odds, default type for almost all European countries as well as Canada and Australia. Being very easy to understand makes them an easy choice for beginners and a favorite format for many bettors and betting sites across the world.

The only thing you need to know is that the decimal odds value stands as multiplier for your wager Your stake x Odds Payout. For example on odds a euro stake will return potential winnings of euros with a net winnings of American odds.

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Positive odds means that you have a probability of over 50 to win the bet and have stake more than the profit you receive. Negative odds mean that you will earn more than your initial wager if you win.

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When it comes to gambling, you won’t be able to find two more essential concepts than odds and probability. They are what makes the entire thing work. Odds are used to calculate both the payout a gambler can expect to receive from a winning wager and the implied odds of an outcome happening. Probability is just the likelihood that a given result will occur.

One essential concept to remember is that while probability and odds are both related and may seem very similar, they aren’t exactly the same thing.

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Probability represents the likelihood that something will happen. Probability of success to probability of failure, and the odds as numbers can be computed by dividing The use of odds in gambling facilitates betting on events where the relative probabilities of outcomes varied.

For example, on a coin toss or a match race between two evenly matched horses, it is reasonable for two people to wager level stakes. However, in more variable situations, such as a multi-runner horse race or a football match between two unequally matched sides, betting "at odds" provides a perspective on the relative likelihoods of the possible outcomes. Once you understand betting odds and the differences between them, reading them becomes easy.

How to understand fractional odds. If a bookmaker offers odds of 31 for an event to occur, you stand to win 3 for every 1 you bet. Moneyline odds use as the evens line, with either positive or negative outcomes. So, if you have odds above the line, this tells you how much you profit you stand to make from a bet. In betting terms, probability is odds expressed as a percentage.

To help you understand probability, think of a coin toss in this case, there are only two outcomes usually heads or tails, each with exactly the same chance of landing. You calculate the probability with the following equation. Bookmakers set odds for events based on many factors. With the ability to read them we can easily determine the probability the bookmaker gives for certain situation to take place.

The problem is different bookmakers let punters place their bets in few formats Decimal, Fractional, Moneyline or Malaysian to name the most common. Every format has different formula, but overall they are telling us the same thing - what do bookmaker think the possible outcome will be, and how much money can we win on a bet.

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Sports Betting Probability Explained. One of the simplest examples to illustrate implied probability is a coin toss. We all understand the concept a flipping a coin. Both heads and tails have a 5050 proposition or a 50 chance of coming up on each flip. In American or moneyline odds, an even-money bet with no added vigorish would be displayed at + We can calculate the implied probability of any wager by dividing our stake with our potential payout.

In this case, we can do the math in our head, but it’s worth showing the work as a baseline for figuring out our implied probability and the oddsmaker’s edge on each wager. The math is obviously the same for both sides. Tails Heads Both sides come to the same calculation of. Odds and probabilities calculation of a football soccer match. The probabilities odds calculation is based on the methods of mathematical statistics see SPORTS and MATHEMATICS, the basic random variables are the distribution of Poisson or Skellam.

Match parameters - Team Goals estimate or basic Odds 1X2 [+ OU].

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Odds means the probability of an event to occur. Be it football or tennis odds, we need to understand the probability. Check out our complete guide on odds! This is what you would stake if an event had a chance of coming true, then keep in mind that you should change your stakes depending on what level of probability your selection has.

If you always put 20 on selection you thought had a 20 chance of coming true but did so at value odds then you should make profit over the course of time.

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If however you are ill-disciplined and increase or decrease your stakes whenever you feel like it, then getting value for money has been blown out of the water. Probability of a given outcome x. What are the advantages of betting on HIGH odds? It is quite obvious High wagers mean high winnings.

A sports bet accompanied by high odds means that a single wager could potentially more than double your stake andor budget! The advantage A safe single bet suffices you don’t have to resort to risky combo bets. Naturally, you always have to bear in mind the higher the odds, the lower the chance of winning. If we have odds of, the predicted probability is 25. In other words, from a statistical perspective the bet will be lo. Betting is about assessing the chance or probability of an event happening and bookmakers like Pinnacle use odds to translate probability into a more usable form in order to offer betting.

To really expand your understanding of odds and betting, you must also understand how to calculate probability. The fact that there are many different odds formats American, Decimal and Fractional illustrates the point that odds are simply a means to an end i.e. In general people are more comfortable with percentages, so by multiplying the probability of your event for Heads by you can say that there is a 50 chance of the coin landing on Heads, and you winning your bet.

How to calculate betting odds.

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Their probability assessment doesn't add up to, they take extra 5, but how did they come to these numbers,? Is it the betting patterns of people that bet, for example, if 90 of people put money on Turkey, hwin coefficient would be lower, or is it some kind of a calculation? A sharp won't bet at all if he feels the odds are unfavorable, and he will bet a great deal if the lines do not update to reflect his actions.

This is not pure irrational greed on the sharp's part there is a statistical basis known as the Kelly criterion for determining how much to bet when one has an advantage. Offer odds Implied probability 1. Converting Fractional odds Fractional odds are generally the most traditional form of expressing betting odds. They are a simple reflection of the return you will receive for a particular amount bet. So for example, let's say a bookmaker is offering odds of 52 for a Home Team to win.

The odds of 52 expressed as "5 to 2" means that for every 2 units that you bet, you will receive 5 back as profit. So if you bet, you would have received profit in return plus your original stake of.

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How Does Probability Affect Betting Odds? Betting, at the very basic level, is all about your ability to predict what is going to happen in a certain sporting event. If you can correctly predict the outcome, then you will win your money. Any sporting event has a number of possible outcomes.

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If you roll a die, then there are six outcomes possible. As such, if you bet on one specific number being rolled, then there is a chance of winning 6.

Betting odds are designed to represent the likelihood of the event happening. Generally, in the UK, they are represented as fractions, althoug. Probability is a measure of how likely an event will happen, and can take a value between 0 0 and 1. A value of 0 means the outcome is impossible, and a value of 1 means the outcome is certain.

A fair coin toss has a 50 probability of returning heads, while a fair die has a 16 chance of returning a 3. It will take some time to get into the habit of assigning probabilities to outcomes, such as a draw in a football game, but it’s important that you do so to assess the value of bookmaker.

Implied probability is the probability of an outcome occurring as implied by the bookmaker odds. If you believe the chance of a bet winning is higher than its implied probability then you believe the bet is good value. What Do Betting Odds Represent? At their most basic, betting odds tell you two things How much you stand to make should the selection win. The probability of the selection winning. If you were looking through the weekend Premier League fixtures and saw a team had fractional odds of 21 that’s decimal odds of you would know that you stand to win 2 in profit from every 1 that you stake should the team win.

As you can see, the combined implied probability of the selections above is. From a bookmaker’s perspective that is a big problem. That’s because, presuming they’ve got the same amount of liability on each selection, they’d never make any money as they’d have to collect and payout the same amount.

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The odds show the probability of an outcome occurring, and this probability is normally shown as a decimal or fraction. As long as you choose the one that you prefer, we’re sure you will enjoy your betting experience that little bit more! Place 5 x 10 or more bets to receive 20 in free bets. Repeat up to 5 times to receive maximum bonus. Betting Odds Explained - we’ll explain how to convert probability into numbers and help you understand how bookmakers protect themselves.

As you can see in these two examples, calculating probability from the odds is simple. Now that you know how to convert odds into probabilities, it’s time to understand how the bookmakers protect themselves.

Betting Odds Explained Bookmaker’s Overround. The overround also known as the margin, vigorish, or juice is the bookmaker’s commission.

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In other words, it is what the bookmaker charges for taking a bet. Football betting odds Odds comparison of current Football betting odds for more than 60 bookmakers with Live Odds Comparison, Live Scores and results for all countries and leagues.

18+ Commercial Content Wagering and TC's Apply Play Responsibly. Football Betting Odds Compare current Football betting odds. Football betting odds work by representing the probability of a certain outcome.

It is the same as odds for other sports. Based on the odds and the implied probabilities one can asses the risk and calculate how much money can be won for placing a bet. Pick your preferred odds format and bet type and seek for value based on the comparison between odds and your prediction. When do Football fixtures come out?

Football fixtures are released in multiple ways depending on the competitions. Check the wide range of betting markets and highly competitive odds.

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Calculate what an odds of e.g. Means in terms of probability it will happen according to the betting company. If, for example, a betting company has an odds of for team A to win a soccer game you can, with this calculation, determine the probabality of this event to happen according to the betting company.

In order to calculate this one need to know or calculate a so called Payback Rate which is determined by the betting company. The Payback Rate is the return the betting company gives back to the players and is usually around 95. This means that the betting company pays out 95 of all turnover and keeps 5.

It is possible to calculate this Payback Rate in this calculation for Compl.

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If you want to bet on sports, you better get used to the word odds’. You need to be able to read odds, compare them, and understand how much you can win for the amount of money you’re risking. But if you don’t understand odds yet, that’s okay, because we’re going to cover them in detail below. We’ll answer these specific questions How do bookmakers set their odds? Why are punters at a disadvantage?

How do you read American, fraction and decimal odds? There are 3 outcomes, and these are the odds the bookmaker gives each one. Next he adds his margin aka profit. Each bookmaker will have a default margin they use.

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Football Betting Odds, Odds Comparison, Sports Betting Odds. The prices offered by bookmakers are perhaps the most important factor to consider in the long-term, with our odds comparison page offering everything that you need to know when looking for a new betting platform. No matter what your sporting preferences are, we also look into the bookmakers who offer the best prices, with both Nigerian and international bookmakers on offer.

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Betting Odds What does it mean? The betting odds represent the probability of an event happening, and that probability is expressed as a percentage. Probability goes from 0 never will happen to certain that will happen. So the bookmakers calculate that probability and translate it into the odds. This is a pretty simple mathematical equation. On the example In the tennis match between Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer bookmakers set the following odds. Odds on Novak Djokovic to win the match are, while the.

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LONDON Reuters - Betting odds on Friday indicated a 79 percent implied probability of Britain voting to stay in the European Union in a June 23 referendum, according to Betfair. The implied probability of an In vote has increased by about 9 percentage points in the past week, according to the Betfair odds. William Hill on Thursday said its odds for an "In" vote were 15, the lowest level to date and indicating an implied probability of 83 percent.

Betting odds indicate 79 percent probability of a British vote to stay in the EU.

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American betting odds When converting American betting odds into implied probability, every punter has to take into consideration that the methods are different for positive and negative betting odds. For positive American betting odds, the equation looks like this betting odd + Let’s look at it in an example +. Here is an odds conversion table to observe the transformation from one bet to another and then to implied probability.

How is Bettingmetrics going to help punters find the best betting odds? Our software provides punters with the ability to aggregate all of their betting data in one place as well as with the right tools to analyse its historical results and improve future performance.

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Odds Converter - Convert Betting Odds. Enter the odds in any format and click Convert. Fractional Odds Traditional UK. To convert moneyline odds to decimal, if the moneyline is positive, divide by and add 1. If it is negative, divide by the moneyline amount without the minus sign and add 1. To convert fractional odds to decimal, divide the first figure by the second figure add so 114, then add.

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Convert Fractional Odds to Decimal Odds. 4 Probability in Sports Betting. How to convert Fractional betting odds. How to convert Decimal betting odds. How to convert American betting odds. In statistics, the odds reflect the likelihood that the event will take place. Understanding the meaning of betting odds is easy, but the most difficult part of this process is knowing whether the odds offered by bookmakers for a particular market reflect the exact probability. Only time and experience will help you identify if odds shown are higher than the probability of such event.

If you believe the chance of a bet winning is higher than its implied probability, then you believe the bet is good value. How Bookmakers calculate odds.

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Betting Odds - Guide to the best tips on adapting sports betting odds for Indonesian, Hong Kong, and Malay odds. Convert odds easily at top sportsbooks. But the amount of money gambled on an outcome has no bearing on the probability of the result. Growth Of Sports Betting Online In Asia. Sports betting is a global business and has exploded in the Asian scene in recent years.

A bet on the Redskins would bring home The price includes your stake and your profit. It’s worth noting here that most online bookmakers have the facilities to convert between Fractional and Decimal Odds, depending on what the user receives.

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Betting Odds Explained Determining Bookmakers’ Odds. However, understanding betting odds requires players to also understand the second step that betting operators take. Here you have to bear in mind that bookmakers have one goal and one goal only and that is to make a profit on every bet which is placed.

That’s why they include the bookmakers’ margin. To do this they take the real odds and include the overround which basically reduces the odds by a small margin. This means that the relative probability when all outcomes are combined is not, but. What this means in the simplest of terms is that for every received, the bookmaker only pays out a maximum of The profit of at least 20 is actually the bookmakers’ margin, which in this case is.

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Betting odds tell us the implied probability of the outcome of a game as well as how many money we will win or lose. Betting on a team at odds implies that you have a 60 chance to win, that you must risk if you wish to win, and you must win more than 60 of your bets at those odds in order to become profitable. Sign up for FantasyData's newsletter and get awesome content sent to your inbox.

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Learn how sports betting odds work how to read NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL betting lines. We explain odds for moneyline bets, overunders, props more! The shorter the odds, the higher the win probability, and the lower the payout.

That means that the better a team is, the less you’re going to win by betting on them since they win so frequently. Bad teams are known as the underdog.

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Implied probabilities are useful whether you are betting on single games, futures, props or live wagering. To determine if one of these wager types offers value one must understand the implied odds behind the bet. If your assessed probability how often you think a team will win in a certain game is higher than the implied probability the wager offers a value betting opportunity. How do you convert odds into their implied probabilities?

It is easy and we are going to teach you. Most wagers are expressed using money-line odds or + or fractional odds 32 or 51.

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Using implied probability in betting can also help you compare odds between bookmakers. However, if you consider betting to be just about odds, you're missing the bigger picture.

To really expand your understanding of odds and betting, you must also understand how to calculate probability. The amount by which the implied probability diverges from is the margin the bookmaker has added to that particular that market. This is an essential piece of information for a value-seeking bettor as it highlights the true cost of placing a bet with a bookmaker. Using implied probability to calculate a bookmaker’s margin is easy and very useful as few, if any, bookmakers publicly share it.

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Convert Fractional Odds to Decimal Odds. 4 Probability in Sports Betting. How to convert Fractional betting odds. How to convert Decimal betting odds. How to convert American betting odds.

In statistics, the odds reflect the likelihood that the event will take place. Understanding the meaning of betting odds is easy, but the most difficult part of this process is knowing whether the odds offered by bookmakers for a particular market reflect the exact probability. Only time and experience will help you identify if odds shown are higher than the probability of such event. If you believe the chance of a bet winning is higher than its implied probability, then you believe the bet is good value.

How Bookmakers calculate odds.

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Reading and understanding sports betting odds can bet a little confusing to beginners, so we have provided an example below using two NFL football teams American Odds. Using the + odds, it shows us that a bet on that outcome would pay out in profits. Again this can easily be converted into smaller or larger size bets. A 10 bet on + odds would pay out 12 in profits.

Examples Below is an example of NFL betting odds taken from an online betting site. In this example you can see Los Angeles is listed at + bet pays plus of course your original wager back and New England is listed at bet pays.

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The odds show the probability of an outcome occurring, and this probability is normally shown as a decimal or fraction. As long as you choose the one that you prefer, we’re sure you will enjoy your betting experience that little bit more! Place 5 x 10 or more bets to receive 20 in free bets. Repeat up to 5 times to receive maximum bonus.

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Calculating the Implied Probability of betting odds is easy. Simply enter the odds into the Implied Probability Calculator on this page and then hit the Convert button. The Implied Probability of the odds will then be displayed in the Probability box. Next, you’ll need to determine whether there is value in the bet you are thinking of placing.

To do this, simply compare the Implied Probability with the chances you give that bet of winning. For example If you give Conor McGregor a 50 chance of beating George St-Pierre, but the Implied Probability in the odds is 30, then your bet has valu.